How to Guess If Your Job Will Exist in Five Years

Ask yourself: Are you coal, or are you a horse?

By Annie Lowrey from The Atlantic March 25, 2026, 8:25 AM ET
Source: How to Guess If Your Job Will Exist in Five Years - The Atlantic

Will my job even exist in five years? Following the rise of Claude Code and ChatGPT, pretty much every white-collar worker I know has been asking themselves that question. AI can code like an engineer, write a business plan like a consultant, decorate like an interior designer1, and answer medical questions better than a doctor. It can make up a shockingly catchy2 and shockingly filthy3 country tune, and croon4 it in a voice drenched5 in Tennessee whiskey6. The realization that America might not need so many engineers, consultants, interior designers, doctors, and country singers in the future naturally follows. Searches for the phrase7 job apocalypse8 are spiking9. Polls show that voters are beginning to freak out10.

But there’s a better question for white-collar workers to ask themselves: Am I coal, or am I a horse?

Horses and mules have had a rough go of it11 in the labor market, to say nothing of12 hinnies13. American farms employed 26,493,000 equines14 in 1915. One hundred years later, the number of such animals on the payroll15 had collapsed to 700,000. (To be fair, the data aren’t great.) Farmers needed horses until tractors and trucks did their work better, so farmers hired millions of them instead. (Again, not great data. The government inexplicably16 stopped keeping a tally17 of farm trucks in 2013, though it still counts the number of tractors.)

The problem with horses—one of the problems with horses, I say as a former horse girl—is that they are as stubborn as mules. When the combine rolled18 onto the alfalfa19 field, horses did not see the writing on the barn wall20 and start applying for factory jobs. They didn’t learn to code or attend community college. They stood there and ate carrots.

Humans have managed the tides of change far better. More than half of the American labor force worked in agriculture in 1880, compared with 2 percent today. But farmers didn’t become obsolete21. They became sewing-machine operators whose children became steamfitters22, whose children became teachers, whose children became contestants23 on reality shows. Many jobs common 100 years ago—drayman24, telephone operator, woodchopper, hoistman25—are niche26 or nonexistent today.

I’m smoothing things over27, granted28. The transition from agricultural employment to factory employment involved wrenching mass migration, the utter29 misery of the Great Depression (as well as other brutal recessions, now faded from collective30 memory), and the painful dealmaking31 of the New Deal32. The shift from blue-collar work to white-collar work has decimated33 communities such as Dayton and Youngstown and Muncie34, and contributed to the rise of extreme inequality. We’re still experiencing the social, political, and public-health consequences. When technology leads to huge numbers of jobs disappearing quickly, bad things happen. Still, humans are transformers. We adapt, we change, we prosper, and sometimes we thrive, even as a robot revolutionizes our job—which is where coal comes in.

In 1865, a brilliant English economist named William Stanley Jevons published a book, The Coal Question: An Inquiry Concerning the Progress of the Nation, and the Probable Exhaustion of Our Coal-Mines. Coal “is the material energy of the country—the universal aid—the factor in everything we do,” he wrote. “With coal almost any feat35 is possible or easy; without it we are thrown back into the laborious poverty of early times.” The text is rhapsodic36, romantic even. (Find someone who looks at you the way Jevons looked at a furnace37.) But Jevons wasn’t overdoing38 it. England was one of a handful of places where coal sat on or near the surface of the Earth, along with Appalachia and the Ruhr, the economic historian Brad DeLong told me when I called him to chat about Jevons. You could dig it up and heat a home, boil water, forge a metal, or power an engine. Coal was why England was the seat of the Industrial Revolution. Coal made England rich.

Yet the country had only so much of it. (Problem.) Efficiency improvements in steam-powered engines would ease demand, economists who weren’t Jevons argued. (Solution?) But the same improvements would drive down the price of consumer goods, push up corporate profits, and extend the penetration39 of coal into the economy; efficiency would lead to the demand for coal increasing, not decreasing. That insight became known as the Jevons paradox within the world of academia40. England would need more coal, or it would decline as an economic power.

You’ll be hearing a lot about this obscure Victorian notion in the coming years. Silicon Valley types can’t stop talking about it. Searches for the phrase Jevons paradox are looking a lot like searches for the phrase job apocalypse. Contemporary examples of the paradox in action41 are plenty: LEDs, heat pumps42, and front-loading washer-dryers43 use less electricity than incandescent bulbs44, furnaces, and top-loaders45. But the United States uses more electricity now than it did 20 or 50 years ago because we have so many more electrical gadgets46. Broadband47, mobile data, and semiconductors48 are Jevons-paradoxical too. Better phones and faster networks have led to people watching short-form videos every waking moment, meaning we need more bandwidth. Advanced chips that turn everything into a tiny computer means that someone can hack your coffee maker and demand a ransom, meaning we need more chips.

The paradox occurs in the labor market as well, with humans in many jobs standing in49 for coal. In 2016, the Nobel laureate50 Geoffrey Hinton argued that we “should stop training radiologists” because software would soon render them obsolete21. But improvements in medical imaging unlocked new use cases for CTs and MRIs; patients demanded, and doctors ordered, more tests, and radiologists were the doctors administering51 and interpreting them. Technology acted as a complement to human work rather than a substitute for it. Ditto52 with radiology and AI. At least for now, artificial intelligence is changing how doctors do their job, not eating their lunch.

Perhaps the most relevant example is software engineers. Earlier this month, the fintech53 company Block fired half of its employees. “We’re already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter54 teams, are enabling a new way of working,” Jack Dorsey, the company’s CEO, explained on X. “I had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out55, or be honest about where we are and act on it now.”

To translate that from corporate-speak56: To Dorsey, people are horses. Innovation is driving them out of existence57. But people are coal—or, to be more precise, coders seem to be coal at the moment. Businesses employ 6 percent more software engineers now than they did a year ago, in part because58 corporate executives are desperate59 for workers to figure out how to develop or implement AI products. (Dorsey might have had other reasons for axing those 4,000 Block employees, by the way. A former employee speculated in The New York Times that the cuts were the result of “standard prioritization60 and cost management, not an A.I.-driven reinvention.”)

Of course, people can be horses and coal and a thousand other things, because AI will have different effects on different workers in different industries in different places and in different times. The government, too, could affect the job market: It could raise taxes on corporate profits, or pass AI-constraining or labor-protecting regulations. Part of the reason Hinton’s prediction about radiologists never came true is that medical-imaging software needs to go through61 the notoriously challenging FDA review process, slowing down its deployment and raising costs. Given the friction out there62, AI’s labor-market and productivity effects could be far more muted than many people (me) fear. And some sectors of the economy won’t be affected much, if at all63. The most common job in the Bay Area isn’t AI-systems architect64. It’s home health aide65.

As AI changes everything or nothing or both, coal is finally headed the way of the horse, in England at least. Jevons correctly predicted that technological advances would increase demand for coal, yet he profoundly underestimated the ability of British mines and the global market to meet that demand. The country’s production volumes increased until the early 1950s. And while Jevons was writing his book, a Pennsylvanian66 called Colonel Drake (not actually a colonel) was figuring out how to drill deep into the Earth and pump out67 petroleum. Soon after, oil and gas supplanted68 coal, as coal had supplanted biomass, and as solar will someday—perhaps—supplant oil and gas. All of England’s industrial-scale coal mines have closed. Its last coal-fired power plant closed in 2024. Today, the country uses as much coal as it used in 1666, when the most common profession69 was peasant70.

  1. interior designer /ɪnˈtɪriər dɪˈzaɪnər/ n. 室内设计师（指规划、研究、协调和管理室内空间的功能性、安全性及美学设计，包括空间布局、色彩、照明、家具、材料等的专业人员） ↩︎

  2. catchy /ˈkætʃi/ adj. (比较级 catchier，最高级 catchiest) 1. (曲调、口号、广告语等) 悦耳易记的，朗朗上口的 2. 吸引人的，引人注目的，有感染力的 ↩︎

  3. filthy /ˈfɪlθi/ adj. (比较级 filthier，最高级 filthiest) 1. 肮脏的，污秽的 2. 淫秽的，下流的，猥琐的 3. (天气、口语中)恶劣的，令人不快的 ↩︎

  4. croon /kruːn/ v. (croons, crooning, crooned) 1. 低声哼唱，轻柔地唱（尤指抒情歌曲或爵士乐） 2. (柔情地)轻哼，低吟 n. 低吟，轻哼声 ↩︎

  5. drenched /drentʃt/ adj. 湿透的，浸透的 v. (drench 的过去式和过去分词) 使湿透，使浸透 ↩︎

  6. Tennessee whiskey /ˌtenɪˈsiː ˈwɪski/ n. (不可数) 田纳西威士忌（一种产自美国田纳西州的纯正威士忌，以玉米为主要原料，蒸馏后须经过枫木炭过滤醇化过程，口感顺滑，与波本威士忌类似但有独特工艺要求） ↩︎

  7. phrase /freɪz/ n. (复数 phrases) 1. 短语，词组 2. 习语，惯用语 3. 乐句，乐节 4. 简洁的语句，有力的说法 v. (phrases, phrasing, phrased) 1. 用语言表达，措辞 2. 将(乐句)分成乐节，演奏乐句 ↩︎

  8. apocalypse /əˈpɑːkəlɪps/ n. (复数 apocalypses) 1. 启示，天启（尤指《圣经》中的《启示录》） 2. 世界末日，大灾难，毁灭性事件 3. (比喻) 大动荡，剧变（如 job apocalypse 工作末日） ↩︎

  9. spiking /ˈspaɪkɪŋ/ v. (spike 的现在分词) 1. 激增，急剧上升 (指价格、数量、搜索量等突然大幅增加) 2. 给…添加酒精或药物 3. 用尖刺刺穿 4. 拒绝发表(新闻报道) adj. 激增的，急剧上升的
    在文中的具体用法：
    Searches for the phrase job apocalypse are spiking. → “工作末日”一词的搜索量正在激增。 ↩︎

  10. freak out /friːk aʊt/ v. phr. (第三人称单数 freaks out，现在分词 freaking out，过去式 freaked out，过去分词 freaked out) 1. (非正式)极度害怕，惊慌失措，抓狂 2. (因药物等)产生幻觉，行为失常 3. 变得激动、愤怒或失去冷静
    在文中的具体用法：
    Polls show that voters are beginning to freak out. → 民调显示，选民们开始恐慌起来。 ↩︎

  11. a rough go of it /ə rʌf ɡoʊ əv ɪt/ n. phr. (非正式) 一段艰难的时期，很不顺利的经历，艰难的处境
    go 在此作名词，意为“尝试，经历”
    rough 意为“艰难的，不愉快的”
    it 为虚设代词，无实义，泛指“生活、处境、所做的事情”
    例句：
    Horses and mules have had a rough go of it in the labor market.
    马和骡子在劳动力市场上的日子一直很艰难。
    用法：常与动词 have 搭配，如 have a rough go of it。 ↩︎

  12. to say nothing of /tə ˈseɪ ˈnʌθɪŋ əv/ prep. phr. 更不用说，更别提（用于递进说明，表示后者比前者更严重或更明显） ↩︎

  13. hinnies /ˈhɪniz/ n. pl. (单数 hinny) 驴骡（公马与母驴杂交的后代，体型通常比骡子小，数量较少，在役用价值上不如骡子） ↩︎

  14. equines /ˈiːkwaɪnz/ /ˈekwaɪnz/ n. pl. (单数 equine) 马科动物（包括马、驴、骡等） ↩︎

  15. payroll /ˈpeɪroʊl/ n. (复数 payrolls) 1. 工资总支出，工资总额 2. (公司、机构等的)在职人员名单，工资单 3. (统称)在职员工，在册人员数量（文中 on the payroll 意为“被雇佣的，在册的”） ↩︎

  16. inexplicably /ˌɪnɪkˈsplɪkəbli/ adv. 令人费解地，莫名其妙地，无法解释地 ↩︎

  17. tally /ˈtæli/ n. (复数 tallies) 1. 记录，账目，计数 2. 标签，标记 3. 结算，得分 v. (tallies, tallying, tallied) 1. 计算，清点，统计 2. 符合，一致 (tally with) 3. (故事、说法等)吻合 ↩︎

  18. rolled /roʊld/ v. (roll的过去式和过去分词) 1. 滚动，滚转 2. (车辆)行驶，行进 3. (机器、车轮等)转动 4. 卷起，卷成筒状 5. (时间、岁月等)流逝 6. 使(眼睛)转动 7. (文章、电影等)开始播放 8. 推、摇(骰子) 文中用法：“When the combine rolled onto the alfalfa field” → 当联合收割机驶上苜蓿地（rolled onto 意为“开进，驶上”）。 ↩︎

  19. alfalfa /ælˈfælfə/ n. (不可数) 苜蓿（一种多年生草本植物，开紫花，主要用作优质饲料，也用于绿肥和覆盖作物） ↩︎

  20. the writing on the barn wall /ðə ˈraɪtɪŋ ɒn ðə bɑːrn wɔːl/ n. phr. (习语 the writing on the wall 的农场变体) 不祥之兆，显而易见的危险信号，即将到来的灾难或淘汰的预兆 ↩︎

  21. obsolete /ˌɑːbsəˈliːt/ adj. (无比较级) 1. 淘汰的，过时的，废弃的 2. (生物特征)退化的，不发达的 3. (词语、用法等)已不再使用的 ↩︎ ↩︎

  22. steamfitters /ˈstiːmˌfɪtərz/ n. pl. (单数 steamfitter) 蒸汽管道安装工，蒸汽系统装配工（指专门安装、维修用于蒸汽供暖、动力等系统的管道及配件的技术工人） ↩︎

  23. contestants /kənˈtestənts/ n. pl. (单数 contestant) 1. 参赛者，竞赛选手 2. 竞争者，角逐者 ↩︎

  24. drayman /ˈdreɪmən/ n. (复数 draymen) 1. 运货马车车夫，赶车工（尤指驾驶低架平板马车运输啤酒桶、重物等的人） 2. (旧时) 货运马车驾驶员 ↩︎

  25. hoistman /ˈhɔɪstmən/ n. (复数 hoistmen) 起重机操作员，绞车操作工（指操作提升设备、吊装重物的工人） ↩︎

  26. niche /niːʃ/ /nɪtʃ/ n. (复数 niches) 1. (职业、市场等的)专属领域，细分市场，利基市场 2. 壁龛，凹槽(墙壁上的凹陷处) 3. (生物学)生态位 4. 合适的位置，舒适的工作 adj. 针对特定小群体的，细分的 v. 把…放在壁龛中，使…处于合适位置
    在文中的用法：
    Many jobs common 100 years ago — drayman, telephone operator, woodchopper, hoistman — are niche or nonexistent today.
    → 100年前常见的许多工作——赶车工、电话接线员、伐木工、起重机操作员——如今要么非常小众，要么已不复存在。此处 niche 意为“仅限于少数人从事的、不再普遍的”。 ↩︎

  27. smoothing things over /ˈsmuːðɪŋ ˈθɪŋz ˈoʊvər/ v. phr. (smooth things over 的现在分词形式) 1. 缓和事态，调解矛盾 2. 轻描淡写，粉饰，把(困难、问题等)说得比实际轻松 3. 掩饰(错误、分歧等) 在文中 “I’m smoothing things over” 意为“我是在把情况说得轻松些”，指作者承认自己简化了历史的痛苦过程。 ↩︎

  28. granted /ˈɡræntɪd/ adv. (口语) 诚然，不错，的确（用于承认某事属实，常带有让步语气） conj. 即使，就算（表示让步，相当于 even though） adj. 被同意的，被授予的（grant 的过去分词，用于 take for granted 等短语） v. (grant 的过去式和过去分词) 同意，授予，承认 ↩︎

  29. utter /ˈʌtər/ adj. (无比较级) 完全的，彻底的，十足的 v. (utters, uttering, uttered) 说，发出(声音)，讲
    utter misery 极度的苦难 ↩︎

  30. collective /kəˈlektɪv/ adj. (无比较级) 1. 集体的，共同的 2. 总体的，集合的 n. 集体企业，合作农场，集体组织
    collective memory 集体记忆 ↩︎

  31. dealmaking /ˈdiːlmeɪkɪŋ/ n. (不可数) 交易达成，谈判撮合，协议磋商（尤指涉及利益交换、妥协与谈判的过程） 文中 “the painful dealmaking of the New Deal” 意为“新政时期痛苦的博弈与妥协”。 ↩︎

  32. the New Deal /ðə nuː diːl/ n. phr. (历史专有名词) 1. (美国历史)罗斯福新政（指1933年至1939年间，美国总统富兰克林·罗斯福为应对经济大萧条而推行的一系列社会经济改革与救济计划，包括金融监管、公共工程、农业补贴、社会保障等） 2. (引申) 类似的新改革方案，新政措施 ↩︎

  33. decimated /ˈdesɪmeɪtɪd/ v. (decimate 的过去式和过去分词) 1. 大量毁灭，严重破坏，使…伤亡惨重 2. (人口、数量) 大幅减少，使…锐减 3. (比喻) 严重削弱，摧毁 ↩︎

  34. Dayton, Youngstown, Muncie 是美国“铁锈带”（Rust Belt）上三个制造业衰退城市的典型代表。在文中，它们象征着美国从蓝领工作向白领工作转型过程中遭受重创、至今难以恢复的社区。
    Dayton /ˈdeɪtən/ n. 代顿（美国俄亥俄州西南部城市）。典型的“铁锈带”衰落的制造业城市。
    19世纪后期因运河与铁路兴起，20世纪上半叶是繁荣的制造业中心。二战后，工业外迁导致其经济和人口持续衰退。从1999年到2024年，制造业就业人数下降52.2%。目前近35%的人口生活在贫困线以下。
    Youngstown /ˈjʌŋztaʊn/ n. 扬斯敦（美国俄亥俄州东北部城市）。钢铁工业城市衰退的典型。
    19世纪后期依托阿勒格尼煤田，成为美国四大钢铁中心之一。人口在1930年达到17万的峰值后持续下跌，至2020年仅剩约6万人。曾在短时间内有5万钢铁工人失业。
    Muncie /ˈmʌnsi/ n. 曼西（美国印第安纳州东部城市）。以“典型美国城市”研究闻名的后工业城市。
    1920年代因“Middletown”研究闻名，二战后制造业离城，经济支柱被抽空。2021年人口较1970年减少15%，住房短缺与就业不足的恶性循环持续至今。 ↩︎

  35. feat /fiːt/ n. (复数 feats) 1. 功绩，伟业，英勇事迹 2. 技艺表演，绝技 3. (引申) 令人钦佩的成就 ↩︎

  36. rhapsodic /ræpˈsɑːdɪk/ adj. 1. 狂想曲的，狂想曲风格的 2. 狂热的，狂喜的，热烈赞美的 3. (感情、语言等)夸张的，激情洋溢的 在文中形容 Jevons 对煤炭的描述文字 “The text is rhapsodic, romantic even.” → “这段文字激情洋溢，甚至有些浪漫。” ↩︎

  37. furnace /ˈfɜːrnɪs/ n. (复数 furnaces) 1. 熔炉，火炉（用于熔化金属、供暖或工业加热的设备） 2. 极热的地方，酷热处 ↩︎

  38. overdoing /ˌoʊvərˈduːɪŋ/ v. (overdo 的现在分词) 1. 做得过分，过火，做得过头 2. 过度使用，滥用 3. (烹调)煮得过久，煮烂 adj. 过分的，过度的 文中用法：But Jevons wasn’t overdoing it. → “但杰文斯并没有过分夸大。” 此处 overdoing it 是固定搭配，意为“夸张，言过其实”。 ↩︎

  39. penetration /ˌpenɪˈtreɪʃən/ n. (不可数) 1. 穿透，渗透，进入 2. (市场、经济等)渗透率，扩散程度，普及 在文中的具体用法（出自Jevons悖论论述）：“…extend the penetration of coal into the economy” → “……扩大煤炭在经济中的渗透范围/普及程度”。此处指煤炭的使用范围更广、深入经济的更多领域。 ↩︎

  40. academia /ˌækəˈdiːmiə/ n. (不可数) 学术界，学术圈，学术生涯（尤指大学和研究机构中的教学、科研活动及其从业者） 常见搭配：in academia 在学术界 ↩︎

  41. in action /ɪn ˈækʃən/ phr. 1. 在活动中，在运转中，在起作用 2. 在实战中，在战斗中 例句：Contemporary examples of the paradox in action → “该悖论在现实中的实例”（指正在发挥作用、可观察到的实际例子）。 ↩︎

  42. pumps /pʌmps/ n. pl. (单数 pump) 1. 泵，抽水机，打气筒 2. (生理)离子泵 3. (比喻)抽吸装置 文中用法：heat pumps 热泵（一种高效供暖/制冷设备） ↩︎

  43. front-loading washer-dryer /frʌnt ˈloʊdɪŋ ˈwɑːʃər ˈdraɪər/ n. 前开式洗衣烘干一体机（指衣物从前面装入的滚筒式洗衣机与烘干机组合设备，通常比顶开式更节能省水） ↩︎

  44. incandescent /ˌɪnkænˈdesənt/ adj. 1. 白热的，白炽的（指高温下发出亮光） 2. 白炽灯的 3. 极亮的，灿烂的 4. (比喻) 极度愤怒的，激动人心的 ↩︎

  45. top-loaders /ˈtɑːp loʊdərz/ n. pl. (单数 top-loader) 顶开式洗衣机（衣物从上方放入，通过中心搅拌器或洗涤板进行洗涤，传统机型，通常比前开式滚筒洗衣机耗水更多） ↩︎

  46. gadgets /ˈɡædʒɪts/ n. pl. (单数 gadget) 小器具，小装置，精巧的小玩意儿（尤指具有某种实用功能的电子或机械设备，如智能手机、平板电脑、智能手表等） 文中用法：“we have so many more electrical gadgets” → “我们拥有的电子小玩意儿太多了”。 ↩︎

  47. broadband /ˈbrɔːdbænd/ n. (不可数) 宽带（指高速、大容量的互联网连接技术，通常指传输速率较快的网络服务） adj. 宽带的，宽频带的 ↩︎

  48. semiconductors /ˌsemikənˈdʌktərz/ n. pl. (单数 semiconductor) 半导体（一种导电性能介于导体与绝缘体之间的材料，如硅、锗，是制造芯片、晶体管、集成电路等电子元件的核心材料）
    在文中的用法（出自 Jevons 悖论论述）：
    Broadband, mobile data, and semiconductors are Jevons-paradoxical too.
    → “宽带、移动数据和半导体也符合杰文斯悖论。”（指芯片性能的提升导致设备数量和应用场景暴增，从而需要更多芯片） ↩︎

  49. standing in for /ˈstændɪŋ ɪn fɔːr/ v. phr. (stand in for 的现在分词形式) 1. 代替，替代，充当…的替身 2. 在文中比喻“扮演…的角色，起到…的作用” 文中用法：“with humans in many jobs standing in for coal” → 许多工作中的（人类）劳动者扮演着煤炭的角色 / 起着煤炭的作用。 ↩︎

  50. laureate /ˈlɔːriət/ n. (复数 laureates) 1. 荣誉获得者，获奖者（尤指诺贝尔奖获得者） 2. 桂冠诗人 (Poet Laureate) adj. 戴桂冠的，享有殊荣的 文中用法：“Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton” → “诺贝尔奖获得者杰弗里·辛顿” ↩︎

  51. administering /ədˈmɪnɪstərɪŋ/ v. (administer 的现在分词) 1. 管理，治理，执行 2. 给予，施用（药物、治疗等） 3. (在文中) 执行、操作（医学检查），即为患者进行影像检查的操作过程 ↩︎

  52. ditto /ˈdɪtoʊ/ adv. (非正式) 同上，同样地，也一样 n. (复数 dittos) 复制品，相同的东西，同上符号 v. (dittoes, dittoed, dittoing) 重复，照抄，对…如法炮制
    在原文中的用法：
    Ditto with radiology and AI. → “放射学和人工智能也是如此。”
    （指前面提到的“技术作为人类工作的补充而非替代”这一现象，同样适用于放射学和人工智能的关系。） ↩︎

  53. fintech /ˈfɪntek/ n. (不可数) 金融科技（financial technology 的缩合词，指运用技术改进、优化或自动化金融服务的行业、产品或技术，涵盖移动支付、网络借贷、区块链、智能投顾等领域） ↩︎

  54. flatter /ˈflætər/ v. (flatters, flattering, flattered) 1. 奉承，恭维，讨好 2. 使显得更漂亮，使更出色 3. 使感到荣幸 (be flattered) adj. (flat 的比较级) 更平坦的，更扁平的，更平淡的 在文中的具体用法：“smaller and flatter teams” → “更小、更扁平的团队”，指组织层级减少、结构更趋扁平化。 ↩︎

  55. plays out /pleɪz aʊt/ v. phr. (play out 的第三人称单数形式) 1. (事件、局势等)逐渐发生，展开，发展 2. 演完，将(戏剧)演到底 3. 耗尽，用完 文中用法：as this shift plays out → “随着这一转变逐渐展开 / 随着这一变化逐步发生”。 ↩︎

  56. corporate-speak /ˈkɔːrpərət spiːk/ n. (不可数，常带贬义) 企业用语，公司行话，官僚腔（指企业或组织中常用的空洞、委婉、冗长或充满术语的表达方式，往往掩盖真实含义或使沟通更复杂） 文中用法：“To translate that from corporate-speak” → “用大白话翻译一下这些企业行话。” ↩︎

  57. out of existence /aʊt əv ɪɡˈzɪstəns/ phr. 不复存在，消亡，被淘汰（指某物因外部力量而完全消失或不再存在）
    在文中的用法：
    Innovation is driving them out of existence. → “创新正在把他们淘汰出局。”
    此处 drive something out of existence 意为“使…不复存在”，强调技术变革导致某种事物（此处指人，即“马”类型的工作者）完全被取代或消失。 ↩︎

  58. in part because /ɪn pɑːrt bɪˈkɔːz/ conj. phr. 部分原因是，一定程度上是因为（表示某个结果或现象的原因只是局部的，而非全部）
    在文中的用法：
    Businesses employ 6 percent more software engineers now than they did a year ago, in part because corporate executives are desperate for workers to figure out how to develop or implement AI products.
    → “企业现在雇佣的软件工程师比一年前多了6%，部分原因是企业高管迫切需要员工来弄清楚如何开发或实施人工智能产品。” ↩︎

  59. desperate /ˈdespərət/ adj. 1. 绝望的，孤注一掷的 2. 极度渴望的，迫切需要的 (desperate for sth.) 3. 危急的，险峻的 在文中的用法：“corporate executives are desperate for workers to figure out how to develop or implement AI products” → “企业高管极度渴望有员工来弄清楚如何开发或实施人工智能产品” ↩︎

  60. standard prioritization /ˈstændərd ˌpraɪərətɪˈzeɪʃən/ n. phr. 标准优先级排序，常规的优先事项管理（指企业根据既有流程对任务、项目或资源分配进行常规性的重要性排序，而非因重大技术变革或战略转型驱动的特殊调整）
    在文中的用法：
    A former employee speculated in The New York Times that the cuts were the result of “standard prioritization and cost management, not an A.I.-driven reinvention.”
    → 一位前员工在《纽约时报》上推测，裁员是“标准优先级排序和成本管理”的结果，而非“人工智能驱动的重塑”。
    此处 standard prioritization 意为公司按照常规的业务优先级（如盈利部门优先、低效项目裁撤）进行决策，而非因为 AI 取代了人力。 ↩︎

  61. go through /ɡoʊ θruː/ v. phr. (go through, goes through, going through, went through, gone through) 1. 经历，遭受(困难、痛苦等) 2. 仔细检查，审查 3. 通过(法律、考试、批准等) 4. 消耗，用完(钱、食物等) 5. 完成，履行(手续、程序) ↩︎

  62. out there /aʊt ðer/ adv. phr. 1. 在现实世界中，在实际情况中（尤指与理论、实验室、想象相对的客观环境） 2. 在那边，在远处 3. (非正式) 存在，出现（常用于 be out there 结构）
    在文中的具体用法：
    Given the friction out there → “鉴于现实世界中（存在的）各种阻力”
    此处 out there 指代真实的市场环境、监管流程、技术部署障碍等实际因素，与理论上的推演或理想化的预测相对。 ↩︎

  63. if at all /ɪf æt ɔːl/ adv. phr. 1. 即使有影响（程度也很小），如果真有什么影响的话 2. 如果真要做（也做得很少） 用法：用于否定或限制性陈述之后，强调某事即使发生也程度极低或频率极低。 例句：Some sectors won’t be affected much, if at all. → “有些部门即使受到影响，程度也很小（甚至根本不受影响）。” 在文中：And some sectors of the economy won’t be affected much, if at all. → 有些经济部门即便会受到（人工智能的）影响，也微乎其微，甚至根本不会。 ↩︎

  64. architect /ˈɑːrkɪtekt/ n. (复数 architects) 1. 建筑师，建筑设计师 2. (比喻) 设计师，缔造者，创造者（某重大计划、体系或事件的策划者） 文中用法：“AI-systems architect” → 人工智能系统架构师（设计和规划 AI 系统整体结构、技术选型与部署方案的专业人员）。 ↩︎

  65. aide /eɪd/ n. (复数 aides) 助手，助理，副官（尤指在政治、军事、医疗或教育等领域中提供协助的辅助人员）。常见搭配：home health aide 家庭健康助理（为老年人、残障人士或慢性病患者提供非医疗性日常照护的服务人员）。 ↩︎

  66. Pennsylvanian /ˌpensəlˈveɪniən/ n. 1. 宾夕法尼亚州人（美国宾夕法尼亚州的居民或出生于此地的人） 2. (地质学)宾夕法尼亚纪（石炭纪晚期的一个亚纪，约3.2亿至2.99亿年前） adj. 宾夕法尼亚州的，宾夕法尼亚人的；宾夕法尼亚纪的 文中用法：a Pennsylvanian called Colonel Drake → “一位名叫德雷克上校的宾夕法尼亚人”。 ↩︎

  67. pump out /pʌmp aʊt/ v. phr. (pump out, pumps out, pumping out, pumped out) 1. 抽出，泵出（液体、气体等） 2. (大量)生产，炮制，源源不断地制造（常含贬义） 3. (机器等)排出，喷出 文中用法：drill deep into the Earth and pump out petroleum → “向地球深处钻井并抽取石油”。 ↩︎

  68. supplanted /səˈplæntɪd/ v. (supplant 的过去式和过去分词) 取代，替代，排挤（尤指通过武力、策略或优势地位夺取原来的位置或地位）
    在文中的用法：
    Soon after, oil and gas supplanted coal, as coal had supplanted biomass.
    → “不久之后，石油和天然气取代了煤炭，正如煤炭曾经取代了生物质能一样。” ↩︎

  69. profession /prəˈfeʃən/ n. (复数 professions) 1. (尤指需要专门知识和高等教育的)职业，专业（如医生、律师、建筑师、教师等） 2. (某一职业的)全体从业人员，同业，同行 3. 公开表明，宣称，声明（常接 of） 4. (宗教上的)发誓，立誓入会 ↩︎

  70. peasant /ˈpezənt/ n. (复数 peasants) 农民，佃农，乡下人（尤指封建社会或农业社会中从事小块土地耕种、社会地位较低的农耕者，有时也泛指贫穷或未受教育的农村居民） ↩︎